Nintendo Super Mario Run Will Cross One Billion Downloads Says Analysts

Nintendo’s recently announced Mario game for smartphone devices, Super Mario Run, is going to be a massive, runaway hit, according to one analyst.

Noted analyst Serkan Toto, who is often cited by The Wall Street Journal and others, was quoted in a recent piece predicting that Super Mario Run will reach 1 billion downloads. He later clarified on Twitter that he was referring to the initial free download; he also said it should be “easy” to reach 1 billion.

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By comparison, The Pokemon Company announced this week that the hugely popular Pokemon Go reached 500 million downloads worldwide. One billion downloads is not an unprecedented feat in the mobile gaming world, as Temple Run and Angry Birds have reached that mark, but the major, important distinction is that this figure is for multiple games in those franchises.


Presumably, Toto is factoring in both iOS and Android downloads for Super Mario Run. The game comes out in December for iOS, with an Android version to follow later, according to Kotaku.

Nintendo’s announcement of Super Mario Run helped the company’s share value increase, as WSJ reports stock price is up 13 percent in Tokyo today, September 8.

An unspecified “portion” of Super Mario Run will be available for free, while players can pay a “set purchase price” to access more content. Though pricing has not been confirmed, the WSJ believes Super Mario Run could be a big-time money-maker.

“The Mario smartphone game should bring in revenue quickly for Nintendo because players have to pay if they want to enjoy all the game’s levels,” the site reported.

Super Mario Run is an auto-runner-style game where Mario moves forward on his own. Players then use a single finer to touch the screen to make him jump to avoid obstacles and enemies. As you’d expect, levels end by touching the screen to make Mario vault into the air to capture the flag pole.